A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
